Green Credit Policies’ Effect on Corporate Low-Carbon Exports: A Theoretical Model-Based Simulation and Analysis

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global low-carbon transition and green trade restructuring, green credit policy serves as a vital financial tool to stimulate firms’ low-carbon exports, yet its theoretical logic lacks systematic exploration. This paper develops a three-agent model of financial institutions, international markets, and firms to analyze the effects of firm trade heterogeneity and the theories of green finance. The study methodically determines the impact effects, mechanisms, and varied characteristics of green credit policies on business low-carbon exports by establishing distinct policy assumptions and building and solving theoretical models both before and after policy implementation. According to the study, the dual reallocation effect of financial and production resources is the primary mechanism by which green credit regulations can considerably boost the growth of businesses’ low-carbon exports and lower carbon intensity. International green trade barriers have a substantial synergistic effect with the policy effects, which show twofold heterogeneity in terms of enterprise carbon intensity and policy intensity. Additionally, this paper provides suggestions in four areas, which support policy improvements, enhance competitiveness of exports, and expand the scope of theories of green finance and trade coordination.